Opportunity...

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THought I would share this with you guys and pick your brains as most of you have been at this much long than in (in welding business).  I am an engineering manager for a fairly large powdered metal company and am the engineering manager at our one facility.  I recently got involved in a project one of our sister companies had been struggling with which involved welding PM.  The component being welded are a turned shaft which is pressed into a PM "carrier" part that houses some planetary gears.  I had open rein on the design which is used by a VERY large company that we are all familiar with but I will exclude their name here....At any rate I got my hand on some of the parts/component and took them to our maintenance department and grabbed the tig after experimenting on some other similiar pm parts.  The stuff weld beautifully...might venture to say it welds nicer than anything I every tried to TIG.  Very uniform and easy to control puddle and they turn out looking very nice.  I think the main problem with our sister company was having was they were sending them out and trying to resistance weld them with an outfit that really had no vested interest in the success of the program.  Anyways the pressed in shaft in their preliminary prototype builds worked marginally with only the press in fit.....so a few tacks I thought would solidify the concept/design in the eyes of the customer engineers.  I welded up some parts and they tested them and all passed - so our company for the FULL order which is 100,000 pieces at a fairly decent price.  Our company per say has zero welding experience other than me.  Well today we were in a meeting with the sales manager, and plant manager and I jokingly said while discussing the project - well i will have to get in my competitive bid for welding these units ....number I threw out was greater than $0.50 per unit......and the plant manager said - Sure....I have no problem if you do them!  These guys always hear and see my car videos and car welding projects I am working on and have no idea themselves what is involved.  So to put a few tack welds (3 places around the shaft and 3 small 1/4 inch welds to hold the carrier together is all it would take.)I figure on a 240 day work schedule it would be around 400 pieces a day.  What are you guys thoughts.  Its almost too good to pass up and I know I would be tied down to the garage every night making sure I get out the quota.....and most likely some weekends.  With some jigs that index off a foot peddle one could probably bang them out pretty quick.  ........what are you fellas thoughts....I am on the fence right now about what to do or should I just leave well enough alone.  Should also add that there is a WHOLE family of these parts that if we get this one up and running our customer wants us to immediately start working on subsequent parts.  So in other words this could be a the business opportunity I have been waiting for.  I have been bustin my azz getting 3 masters degrees (4.0GPA thus far), working full time and raising 5 kids (with (2) 11month old twins and with a career wife that works 3-11).....so trust me I am not afraid of not having any free time.  lol.   This just seems like the ticket i have been waiting for!again give me your thoughts.Last edited by ski_dwn_it; 12-04-2007 at 11:03 PM.Best Times with 434 Naturally Aspirated Vette60 - 1.261/8 -  6.37@ 107.25 MPH 1/4 - 10.08 & 134.9MPH1/4 - 9.60@144MPH
Reply:I always say, " take every opportunity you can". With that said, I would get a realistic goal of how many you think can do in a day. Honestly, once you've done it, you will soon find out how many you can do. Do it day in - day out and you will soon find out how MONOTONOUS it is doing production welding. Ask me how I know...   Might I suggest having some friends, relatives or Weldingweb members help you in your goal? There is nothing wrong with farming out work, just as long as the people you are relying on are as professional and meticulous as you are or you want them to be.John -  fabricator extraordinaire, car nut!-  bleeding Miller blue! http://www.weldfabzone.com
Reply:Just to add - you mentioned 400 pieces/day. Is that an 8 hour day? Even at an 8 hour day, that's 50 units per hour or 1.2 units/minute tacked 3 times WITH 3 - 1/4" TIG welds. Can it be done? I think you'd be hard pressed to keep up with that pace. John -  fabricator extraordinaire, car nut!-  bleeding Miller blue! http://www.weldfabzone.com
Reply:Good job on the solution. Good job on getting some potential work ($$$). I don't know that you've done the math tho, have ya? The shafts plus the carrier actually end up being double the parts handled to turn out a completed "piece". Anyway a 16 hour day has 960 minutes ÷ 400 pieces would leave 2.4 minutes per piece. You need HELP.. (oops micro, didn't see your post)
Reply:Unless I'm reading him wrong he's talking about a 4 hour day.EDIT; surely he isn't considering quiting his regular job just yet.Last edited by olddad; 12-04-2007 at 11:35 PM.Anything worth doing is worth doing RIGHT
Reply:I'm sure he welcomes more comments than just mine Sandy.  YIKES! A four hour day? Really?John -  fabricator extraordinaire, car nut!-  bleeding Miller blue! http://www.weldfabzone.com
Reply:Wow that was quite a few replies.....yeah i did the math and that is what sorta scares me.....lol.  it comes out to be 400 pcs per day on a 240 day year (obviously we have weekends to work also)....but it comes down to 400/8 = 50 per hour.  Probably not possible by 1 person.  I took some welding classes, again opened my mouth up during a meeting jokingly when our maintenance guys were getting some training and again the plant manager said sure if you want to take the classes - go ahead and get signed up we will pay for it.  The point of my story is the instructor that gave the classes is I believe out of work right now due to the training facility closing down - it was a state funded career center in a neighboring town....tonight he was the first person I thought of that would be qualified and might be willing earn some extra cash.....I will have to see how things play out.  Little story that I keep coming back to....is 2 years ago I had to take one of our secondary shop owners out to GM due to a quality problem we had.  On our 8 hour trip to MI, we had a pretty good discussion and I asked him how he got started in his centerless grinding business that is now premier in the entire area and utilized by MANY...think he has over 50 people working for him now....maybe more now...I know we send 10s of thousands of parts to him weekly.  Anyways he just laughed and said.....i heard of a guy that needed some parts centerless ground - and he took the order without EVER even seeing a grinder in his life...he worked at the local papermill as a safety officer.  He and his brother found a used unit...bought it over a weekend from a guy about 1.5 hours away......had it delivered to his garage...could not even get it all the way in....so they had to push it into the back of the garage with a pickup and tires to protect it.....then he found out that it was 3phase powered...so he had to hire an electrician to hook everything up.  The guy hooked up the power and told him to test it out and he said he was so embarrassed because he did not even know how to turn it on!  After getting it running and playing with it for a day....he called the guy he bought it off of and asked if he could hire him to give him some training the old timer said he will be there at 7am and have some coffee ready.  He would be coming though anyways going to hunting camp....7am the guy showed up and taught him the basics for about 1.5 hours....said he would be back at 7pm on Sunday and he would stop in and check progress...he stopped back and answered more question....and went on his way.  A few years later the guy that took the plung is making a VERY good living.So sometimes maybe thinking about it to much might not be a good thing....ironically enough the plant manager that I mentioned before, he and I had discussions about starting our own place....but he always commented that we are "too smart" to start our own places.  In other words we think about things too much .....instead of just DOING IT.  i am sure like everything else there will be some sleepless nights.Last edited by ski_dwn_it; 12-05-2007 at 12:07 AM.Best Times with 434 Naturally Aspirated Vette60 - 1.261/8 -  6.37@ 107.25 MPH 1/4 - 10.08 & 134.9MPH1/4 - 9.60@144MPH
Reply:well, after getting a jig set up, woudl that help with the time constraints? i like Micro's Idea about getting other forum members to help... hint, hint. hehehehe.so do you have any pictures of the proposed finished project? have you timed yourself making them yet? i've noticed that as you do something over and over, and get into your "groove", things just get faster and faster... did you try lining up a row of them and laying the same tack, turning them all, laying the same tack, etc? maybe that would help with time.Later,Andy
Reply:Originally Posted by MicroZoneI'm sure he welcomes more comments than just mine
Reply:I'd say if you're realistic in your assumption of what it would take to accomplish this then do it. You owe it to yourself if this is what you've always been after.But again, be realistic. Could this potentionally come back and bite you in the *** if, say, you get hurt and can't fulfil your obligation? Just C.Y.A and then make a decision.
Reply:Originally Posted by aczelleri've noticed that as you do something over and over, and get into your "groove", things just get faster and faster... Later,Andy
Reply:Originally Posted by MicroZoneYIKES! A four hour day? Really?
Reply:i just re-read your post... have you figured out what your total profit per hour would be? according to my calculations, figure 50% of the $.50 per piece bid is in materials and consumables... that leaves you with a $.25 per piece profit... if you're lucky. now with that $.25 profit at 50 parts per hour (VERY FAST as we have already noted in the thread), you are only looking at a potential profit margin of a mere $12.50 per hour... if you figure the $.25 into the 100,000 proposed parts, you are still only looking at $25,000 profit over a 280 day period... is your time only worth that much? that is a question only you can answer, but look at ALL aspects of your project... increased electric bills, the effects of this job on your other projects, the margin of error that WILL happen with that large of a run of parts... when my dad bids out jobs, he factors in a 10% contingency budget for that error margin and a CYA margin... and other items that may cost you money... and the kids? what kind of impact will this time loss have on your family, sleep cycles, health (confined space with lots of fumes, being in positions that you are not used to being in [standing, crouching, kneeling, etc.]), etc.just a few more items to consider... i would just ask myself "Is this REALLY worth it".Later,Andy
Reply:Andy, Here's the crux: Originally Posted by ski_dwn_it... I jokingly said while discussing the project - well i will have to get in my competitive bid for welding these units ....number I threw out was greater than $0.50 per unit...
Reply:Originally Posted by denrepAndy, Here's the crux:"number I threw out  was greater than $0.50 per unit"
Reply:Zap has clones? SCARY ! John -  fabricator extraordinaire, car nut!-  bleeding Miller blue! http://www.weldfabzone.com
Reply:Originally Posted by MicroZoneZap has clones? SCARY !
Reply:If you took everything into account, how much over .50 did you quote? To see if you can make a profit on the project,  I was thinking about .98 ea.  JohnSMAW,GMAW,FCAW,GTAW,SAW,PAC/PAW/OFCand Shielding Gases.  There all here. :
Reply:Tried to post this morning and the server was busy.  Bingo....>0.50   The welding also is on fairly small parts.  About 2" in diameter and very easy to handle.  Obviously though it will require some serious thought and previous experience tells me that it will not hit 100k units right off the bat....but rather in a ramp up progression which would buy me time to settle into the project with resourses.  Also I could charge a 4k dollars setup fee which is pretty standard SOP in the industry and would get me some fixturing etc that would perhaps help things.  I need to give it some thought for sure.  It is a commitment of time more than anything else.  Been wanting to put in an inground pool for the kids....which I was probably going to do anyways......this would certainly pay for that....my previous student loans....and money in the bank+a few more racing goodies.  I figure NOTHING can be worse than setting inside EVERY weekend like this summer with the newborn twins.  The wife had to make her rounds at the hospital on the weekend every weekend this summer - so I watched the kids - have you seen the movie Mr Mom?   I am always getting into odds and ends......I am not one to sit still very often.  I will keep you all posted on the project.  And YES I am might be interested in someone nearby if they want to pitch in.....suppose none of you are near St Marys, PA.  Right?Best Times with 434 Naturally Aspirated Vette60 - 1.261/8 -  6.37@ 107.25 MPH 1/4 - 10.08 & 134.9MPH1/4 - 9.60@144MPH
Reply:Hey Ski,I've been self employed pretty much all my working life, just a few things to consider:If you were to put in 4 hrs overtime at your job how much would you earn? or even a part time job on the side?I assume there will be a formal contract so you will have a legal obligation to fulfill it. Can you do 4 hrs extra a day , day in day out. Easy for a week or two ,it is hard for extended periods.DO NOT rely on others, it wont happen .No matter how well meaning to start, Unless its a professional.How would you pay anyone who helps? Cash in hand or on the books .Do you have the margin to pay a professional if you cant complete part or all?Speak to your accountant before moving too far.Have you allowed for transport ,deliveries , consumables and storage?Unless your well set up the price seems lean to me.OK thats the negative out of the way.Everybody gets opportunities in life, not everyone takes them due to the risk.There is a lot to be said for not dying wondering .Success is not measured solely on your bank balance. Satisfaction, self definition, achievements, etc all count on the PLUS and no one can take them away. The loss of of the time you spend with your family is a NEGATIVE and you'll never get it back. I know. Whats your wifes take on it all? You will need her in your corner.At the end of the day...back yourselfA good guess is better than a bad measurement
Reply:I am a weldor and mechanic.  I am self employed.  I would not take that job.  I would have to close up my shop (day job) and have one customer.  I started one today that is 80 pieces. two small skids of flanges and pipe.  That one is big enough for me.DavidReal world weldin.  When I grow up I want to be a tig weldor.
Reply:My 2 cents...50 each??Are you nuts?You'll hate yourself in no time..Consumables alone....Thats my 2 cents for today..Clones???That is scarey!!! ...zap!I am not completely insane..Some parts are missing Professional Driver on a closed course....Do not attempt.Just because I'm a  dumbass don't mean that you can be too.So DON'T try any of this **** l do at home.
Reply:To me, cranking out 100,000 pieces is not something you do by hand.  You do that with a machine or machines.A job of that lot size would be very-very-very monotonous if done by hand.And saying that the parts are PM is pretty darn broad in the material spec area.  OK, they are metal.  If you are the welding sub, what happens when the material supplier sub 'slightly' modifies the PM recipe or process?  And your formerly 'easy' TIG welding goes all to heck?100,000 parts over a one year production run and if you want your salary to be $45/hour (~$90k for the year, before tax), you need to -clear- $0.90 per piece.  Roughly figuring a 50% tax-insurance-permit-fee-tax-materials-etc amount, you would need to charge $1.80 per piece for your welding.  On a full-time 40 hour work week basis and 50 work weeks in the year, you need to continously crank those parts out at the rate of 50/hour.  With no breaks.  So you would have to crank them out at about one/minute so that you can take a 10 minute stretch-breath-pee-etc break and then back to cranking them out until the next break.  For 8 hours per day, 5 days a week.And all that doesn't factor in all the part handling and prep and packing and shipping and etc that will have to be done.  That's more time and expense there as well.Can a 100,000 piece production run be done in a year?  Sure.  With machinery and automation.  By hand?  I think you'd be subbing it to China for the labor.
Reply:Originally Posted by zapsterMy 2 cents...50 each??Are you nuts?You'll hate yourself in no time..Consumables alone....Thats my 2 cents for today..Clones???That is scarey!!! ...zap!
Reply:The price that I mentioned today in another discussion was .98 per piece....did not see the above post before stating that ----nothing formal.  I would be doing the work for the company in which I work for now....small tight knit group of people I work with.  Also I control any and all changes that would happen in production of the pieces....I know that it is no easy feat......and will progress with caution.  We have several employees that do work on the side for the company...it is done with simple handshake and things seem to go pretty smooth for the most part.  The people know if they do a good job, as I know, more will come their way.  Yes everything I do, apartments etc are all done by the book....too many ways to get ultra burned trying to cut corners...the goverment has more ways than you want to know about cross-checking, double checking and re-checking that can throw up red flags.....98k is nothing easy to hide.  It is a lot to think about no doubt.  I just keep thinking this might be the missing link to our area, which has TONs of very wealthy people that service the PM industry.  SEVERAL multi-millionaires have come directly from our facility that were in positions like me and just cut loose when an opportunity came along and they capitalized on it.  Most all our parts that get secondary ( I do all our quoting etc) the secondary shops usually make more than we do on the parts.  And MANY of them that own these businesses are known to be very well off....we always joke that we are the fools at work and sticking with our jobs.  Do not get me wrong I make a very good wage for only being 33yrs old....and also do not want to sound greedy or just simply money hungry....however I would like nothing other than working for myself and owning my own place....afterall I have not been bustin my azz getting these degrees to stay where I am at.....After things get crankin I would definately be looking at developing things to automation.....I have a lot of experience and a college friend in a neighboring town that owns his own place that builds automated equipment...of which he built equipment that was used to weld the radiators for PT Cruisers back in their debut.  ............I am going to loosely keep my pulse on things and see how things transpire.Best Times with 434 Naturally Aspirated Vette60 - 1.261/8 -  6.37@ 107.25 MPH 1/4 - 10.08 & 134.9MPH1/4 - 9.60@144MPH1-My tiny experience with repair welding to some unknown form of steel PM, was that the HAZ created a very fracture prone area. I understand that there's many grades of PM, various densities, sintering methods, etc. Presumably there should exist some published technical info on welding PM, as well as others who havedone it.????Did the testing you mention, include impact, offset tensile/shear/torsion/fatigue,transverse/longitudinal micro and macro cross sections of the weld & HAZ tests, etc.; to ensure that your sample welded assemblies would stand the gaff of service, above and beyond what is anticipated????         .....an ounce of analysis is worth a TON of cure Cost Estimating This makes and breaks businesses. Since you're an engineering manager, presumably you've had and have exposure to the little bits and pieces that comprisecosting.....that's a critical part of the engineering arena--IMHO.  Estimating is just that 'estimating', on paper--not in one's head or a web message board. Once's a job's in progress, then the actual production times and costs are recorded against the estimate, to better manage the effort. From your description of this work, it sounds like this assembly might be suitablefor robotic welding--once in high production.***production time***1-Determine step by step, what has to happen and a realistic time estimate, as a part is fixtured, welded, inspected, re-fixtured, welded-inspected, removed from the fixture, brushed, cleaned, placed in shipment container or packaging, then prepared for shipment. (In repetitive, manual part handling if an average person can comfortably handle X parts/hour, then use a factor of say, 75-80% of that for a time estimate,for the human factor.)2-Material Handling-How you handle and store hundreds of the same parts, continually, may indicate using some form of stack baskets, hole punched boards, push carts to hold and move the stack baskets, etc. The material handling, also provides for protecting parts from handling and shipment damage. The heavier the part, the more easily it's damaged. Banged-up parts can cost you, big-time. (Been there, dun-that!)  3-The less 'times-touched', the lower the cycle time. Creating material handling withworkstations that are ergometricly-friendly to handling parts, doesn't cost-it pays you.Once in production, you can see how to improve the handling, but at the onset; atleast have some system to use. You either spend your time, handling and re-handlingparts, or spend time making parts.         ***production costs***This includes everything required to provide for the production work. Amortize equipment and tooling, then per part, estimate consumables, equipment maintenance, supplies, utilities, facility cost. ***business costs***This includes all the hoops you may or may not wish to jump thru,business legal structuring, insurance, regulatory items, bookkeeping, taxes, etc. ***CYA with a tight purchase agreement***I say 'agreement', since it doesn't sound off alarm bells, like the word 'contract' does.You may wish to consider such things as payment details, delivery times, scrapallowances, price escalation clauses, the buyer negating your purchase order togo to another vendor (that's called an Irrevocable Purchase Order), etc.Blackbird
Reply:Got any pics of the parts, could help out the sit I imagine.
Reply:If I were you I would get atleast one person maybe your instructor and set them up as a contract employee. That is how I do it I send a 1099 and they do the taxes and insurance. I also (no offence) do not see any way you could use .25 to weld this. If you are using fusion welding it wont take squat maybe .05 if you are using filler .10 tops. Also if you are not using an inverter you should consider it. The electricity saving might be worth it. Try to use as small a machine as you can to save on electricity cost also. Think hard and get some help with the welding there is no way one person could keep up that pace. Good luck and let us know how it turns out. Steel Thunder Welding LLC. St. Thomas VI USAMM350PBOBCAT 3MAXSTAR 150 STH375 EXTREME PLASMA6.5 HP COMPRESORDEWALT 18, 24, AND 36 VOLTO/A TORCH SETAND SO MUCH MORE I DONT REMEMBERALL IN MY 2005 2500HD EXTENDED CAB L/B